Talk:Celestial Jubilee III/@comment-210.187.208.120-20160315123716/@comment-2098192-20160315230524

Oh oh, hey. let's ask a better question:  Give the total number of drops, what is, over a a large sample size, the actual probability of getting a FAW drop? Has anyone collected the data? Does anyone even know? Does it change from event to event?

From what I've seen a FAW is somewhere around .5% drop rate, if it doesn't vary by event. My sample size is roughly 3k-3.5k FAWs over hte life of my game playing, which is probably too small still for statisical error purposes, so it probably varies anywhere between .25% and 1%.

Is there any reason not to gather the data and actually figure it out? I guess it's kind of hard to since you can't easily record assists.

Over time if you are paying attention to roughly how many you kill and what you get you should get a decent idea of what the drop rate is, but at such low drop rates you can get extremely long streaks of nothing (that are still well within the realm of decent probability scenarios).

Still I'd rather know what it is than what it isn't, and some people have been playing the game long enough to have a good idea of what it is, I'd think. If not, there's always data collection...

anyway, my point being is if there's a .5% drop rate after 600 kills there's about a 5% chance you'd never have gotten a drop (or 1 out of every 20 people). for 600 kills you may feel that is shockingly high to not get a drop, but it is what it is.