User blog comment:Neppudere/The verdict on the LAW/@comment-3204627-20151005153315/@comment-3206725-20151006123814

Saika777: 10.015.703 still can get N. I know it's barely more than 10m, but still the highest N I've seen ;)

Others: Let's say UR drop rate is 0,01%. Even if ace gives you 2x chance it's only 0,02%.

Chance of drop in x tries is 1-(0,99)^x, so with 2 tries it's 1-(0,99)^2, so 1-0,9801=0,0199 so basically the same as getting an ace. With 10 tries it's 0,095, with 100 it's 0,63, with 1000 it's 0,999956829.

Why aren't you getting an ace when you are the finder? You found it, so you are the first to face against it. You should be able to get ace faster than anyone, since they still need to get notification, and they might be in the middle of another fight etc. If you aren't doing 50BP in 1 shot then others would need to wait for you to finish your X attempts. I don't know, 2, 3, 4? They would need to refresh the UI constantly to see if you finally did your ace. They are wasting time, you are wasting BP.

The same time could be used to farm new LAWs, on which you could assist.

Ace on LAW you got(with assumption of 0,02) gives you 2 cards, so 0,0396 chance to drop. Getting non-ace and 2 assists gives you 0,394 chance for a drop. Since getting non-aces is BP free then unless you can ace in max 2-3 attempts don't even bother.

I don't know what rates VP has for drops, but I can't imagine them giving you more than 2x for ace. So even if rates are bigger/lower the math is pretty much the same.

It's also why you see so many low damage users getting UR and not so many high damage users get UR. Usually there's 1-2 big damage dealers and 8-9 low damage users. One of bigs get ace, while second just improved chances for damage amount. So, assuming 2x for ace, 1.8x for 2nd place and 1x for leechers it's:

Chance for ace drop: 0,02

Chance for 2nd place drop: 0,018

Cance that one of 8 leechers got a drop: 0,077

Same for when you ace 1 in 10 attempts you do. There is very big chance your drops will be on assits.

Alliances that are so active they kill LAWs within seconds/minutes probably give you back much more LAWs to assist in than you give them. Even if they "steal" your ace your assists(without even using BP) will give you much higher chance of LAW than your slowly gotten aces. It's better for alliance to "shower" players with LAWs then to wait till finder had it's share.