Talk:Celestial Jubilee III/@comment-210.187.208.120-20160315123716/@comment-122.52.51.47-20160317000001

>How many kills before you have at least 68% chance of a drop (1 std deviation) >How many kills before at least a 95% chance of a drop (2 std deviations) >How many kills before at least a 99.7% chance of drop (3 std deviations) Seeing that each encounter is its own chance and does not stack, wouldn't that setting yourself up for disappointment? By that, I mean, if you settle to the mindset of "Once I reach X kills, the FAW will definitely drop for the FAW".

Just make sure that your data has a good reference and is not limited to just one value. Just to share my experience: I got Huang Long around 50 kills in her event (just 10 in her recent comeback) while never got another copy of Gilgamesh even after racking up 300+ kills.

I'm with you in understanding the risks involved and planning for it. But, thankfully, you can get the FAW through amalmagation nowadays so you don't have to rely on just one course of action unless RNG trolls you (like me never even getting the component cards of Speedster). There's always getting into the T3000 as a final resort.