Talk:The Accursed Queen/@comment-26415148-20181215223432/@comment-26415148-20181216170043

If anyone feels like checking my math, I'm wanting to calculate the required # of keys to have a high (95%) confidence on getting 3 shards from EH and the expected keys for getting 7 shards.

We assume that the shards are always in the panels (is this a generous assumption? Wasn't around during Archwitch Ymir), and 3 chimry coins per key.

So to have 95% confidence of getting a single shard you'd need 44 chimry coins (1-(14/15)^x > 0.95). And then to have 95% confidence on 3 times it'd be 60 coins each ((1-(14/15)^x)^3 > 0.95), so 180 total? That would mean 60 keys to have 95% confidence to complete just the single LR.

And then to get 7 shards for the GLR you'd expect just (15 * 7 / 3 = 35) keys needed? Does all of that seem right? Of course this mostly flies out of the window if we need shards to be in the panels in the first place (but there's some leeway since we have multiple difficulties to use in that case right)?