Talk:Prometheus/@comment-25229582-20141129080925/@comment-116.49.77.145-20141202075541

Nah - calculations are ncr(3,1)(0.2)^1(0.8)^2 = 3 * 0.2 * 0.64 = 0.384 so 38.4% chance of 1 success in 3 attempts.