Talk:Awakening/@comment-115.188.178.121-20150104225105/@comment-25287173-20150109022455

hey let me join.. we talk about probability right..?

''As you can see from the probabilities, the more you awaken, the higher the chance of success once or more times. > ''this conclusion is wrong, the probability of success of each attempt never change: 20%

I dont understand what Amoxicillin said abt coefficient and exponent though maybe you mean marginal probability of independent events?

Each awakening is an isolated incidence with an 80% failure rate > true yeah I agree but we can calculate the chances of two or more independent events by multiplying the chances so I second Renwit355 statement:

''the chance of 5 constructive fails =0.80^5 = 32.768%. so the chance of at least one success in 5 tries is 67.232%.'' > I think this statement is true.. to be exact 67.232% is divided again into 4F 1S, 3F 2S, 2F 3S, 1F 4S, 5S (S = Success, F= Fail)

I think this is misunderstanding. Maybe you equalize statement "the chance of at least one success in 5 tries is 67.232%" to main statement "Chance of success = 20%" so you think the chance increase from 20% to 67.232%

but to failed 21 times in a row... lets see the probabilty: 0.8^21 = 0.00922... wow.. I feel for you..