Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-79.205.224.141-20150504121811/@comment-25751901-20150504140031

As Kfcrispy said; your chance for AUB was pretty close to the calculation. (The math is 100% - 85%x85%x85%x85%x85% = 44.37% chance of no cards proc.)

Also, about 15% and 9% that are compared. In probability, you can make the super accurate like +/- 1%. It normally goes to +/- 5%, +/- 10% or even more; depend on number of samples. So, I don't think  9 and 15 are that much different.